When former President Donald Trump launched his 2024 presidential campaign after a disappointing midterm election for Republicans, his trajectory was something of a mystery. Now, six days before Iowa’s kick-off caucuses on Monday, his standing among the GOP faithful is hardly in doubt.
Voters, campaign operatives, and even some of the candidates on the ground here overwhelmingly agree that the Republican former president is a massive favorite heading into the Jan. 15 caucuses — whether they like it or not.
Trump continues to fuel sky-high expectations, despite questions about the strength of his voter-turnout operation and stormy weather forecasts that could dissuade supporters from showing up.
But should Trump fail to meet expectations with a resounding victory in Iowa, he would enter next-up New Hampshire and South Carolina much more vulnerable. Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis continue to pour millions of dollars into Iowa advertising as they cross the state, backed by well-funded megadonors with robust get-out-the-vote operations, in a relentless effort to narrow Trump’s margin of victory.
At the same time, Trump’s team quietly acknowledges that it has cut back on its door-knocking, get-out-the-vote operation heading into the final week. They insist they can ensure his loyalists show up on caucus day more effectively by relying on rallies, phone calls, and a peer-to-peer text message program. That’s even as allies of DeSantis and Haley push ahead with traditional get-out-the-vote plans at voters’ doorways.
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who has endorsed Haley and spent the weekend campaigning with her across Iowa, conceded that “it will be tough” to beat Trump here.
“There’s obviously a strong implication Trump’s gonna likely win the Iowa caucus,” Sununu told The Associated Press, even as he insisted momentum was building for Haley that will show up more clearly in New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 first-in-the-nation primary. “In New Hampshire, she clearly has a chance to do something no one thought was possible, which was to beat Trump in an early state.”
Trump’s advisers in recent days have been quick to remind reporters — at least privately — that no Republican presidential candidate has won a contested Iowa caucus by more than 12 points since Bob Dole in 1988.
The Trump campaign sees Dole’s margin as the floor for Trump’s victory, a senior adviser told The Associated Press, requesting anonymity to share internal discussions. The adviser described the mood on the campaign as confident but not comfortable, acknowledging questions about the strength of rival organizations and, as always, the weather, which could affect turnout if there is snow or extreme cold.
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The Associated Press and the Horn editorial team contributed to this article.