Democrats have come to consider Nevada a safe “blue” state – but all signs suggest that pattern is about to break.
And the Silver State could be about to go red in a big way as voters flee the Democratic Party.
The Nevada Independent says 2,300 Democrats have quit the party and re-registered as Republicans over the past three months, and the GOP has picked up another 5,000 non-partisan voter registration.
Where Should We Mail Your Book? [sponsored]
One analyst said it’s at least partly due to last week’s primaries as voters switch parties to cast ballots in races they care about.
This year, that includes a larger number of GOP primaries.
“A lot of Republicans are throwing their hat into the primary race,” Dan Lee, an assistant professor of political science at UNLV told the Nevada Independent. “With all these options, you’re seeing all this campaigning going on by these primary candidates that’s going to kind of stir up enthusiasm and … mobilize voters to turn out to bolster the primaries — and part of that is also going to draw some people into the Republican primary.”
However, there’s more to it than just primary voting.
Across the nation, there has been widespread dissatisfaction with how President Joe Biden has handled just about everything, from disastrous inflation levels to his foreign policy mistakes on nearly every continent.
That’s led to a voter realignment – including in supposed “blue” states, where Nevada is a perfect case in point.
Sponsored: Deadliest Drug Ever (are you taking it?)
At the start of the year, Democratic voter enrollments outnumbered Republicans by 75,000.
Since then, the GOP has chipped away at that edge.
Data from the secretary of state’s office finds the Democratic Party registration advantage has dropped by nearly 15,000 votes, from 75,000 in January to 60,000 just last month.
That’s a startling change in a state where Democrats have enjoyed a long-running string of success.
Nevada has a Democratic governor… two Democratic senators… and three of the state’s four House seats are currently held by Democrats.
Politico said earlier this year that Nevada Democrats pulled off a “risky” redistricting gambit that, in a “safe” year, would ensure they hold onto all three of those seats.
“But in a bad environment, that redistricting decision means they will be in danger of losing all of the districts,” the website noted. “And that’s the way the 2022 midterms appear to be shaping up, with President Joe Biden’s approval rating in the low 40s.”
Sponsored: Easy Tongue Secret Delivers Perfect Sleep
Since that report in March, Biden’s approval rating has continued to crater, with the FiveThirtyEight average now below 40 percent.
And House Democrats are in panic mode.
They’ve already committed more than $11 million in spending to the Las Vegas media market, according to Politico. That’s more cash than they’ve so far put up in any other media market in the country – not to a traditional swing district, and not in an attempt to pickoff Republican seats.
It’s going to protect three seats they once thought were safe.
It doesn’t appear to be working: The Cook Political Report now rates all three of those once-safe House seats as “toss-ups.”
It’s not just the House seats.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., who easily won election in 2016, is in the race of her life against former state attorney general Adam Laxalt for a once-safe seat Cook has also rated a tossup.
Sponsored: Do NOT Take CBD Until You Read This
The attack ads are already starting.
There are not going to be too many positive ads in this campaign.#punditry https://t.co/xw8VC5urg3
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) June 15, 2022
The Democratic defections could even cost the party control over the governor’s mansion, with a new poll showing that Gov. Steve Sisolak… who just weeks ago held a healthy lead in his quest for reelection… is now essentially tied with Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo.
Scientists: Sex and Cancer Linked in Seniors over 60 [sponsored]
Nevada has recently been considered a safe blue state.
If early polling is any indication, Democrats are in trouble… and their problems won’t be limited to Nevada come November.