Could the communist regime gripping Cuba for decades soon be toppled in a matter of days?
According to experts, the island nation’s very survival depends on it.
As first reported by Newsmax, data from analytics firm Kpler has concluded that Cuba is on the cusp of a major energy crisis that could send the country into complete upheaval.
It’s now reported that Cuba only has enough oil to last just 15 to 20 days at current consumption levels.
The dire shortfall comes as the Trump administration intensifies pressure on the communist island and key suppliers appear to be cutting off shipments, including from Venezuela.
Numbers supplied by Kpler show Cuba has received only one small oil delivery so far this year — a single shipment from Mexico on Jan. 9 totaling about 84,900 barrels.
That equates to just over 3,000 barrels per day, which is far below the nearly 37,000 barrels per day Cuba averaged from all suppliers last year, according to an analysis from the Financial Times.
When combined with an estimated 460,000 barrels in storage at the start of the year, Cuba has fuel for no more than two to three weeks, Kpler analysts told the Financial Times.
This means without new deliveries, Cuba could soon face severe rationing on top of the already near-daily power blackouts that cripple the island nation.
The dire outcome should be no surprise after President Donald Trump has vowed on multiple occasions to cut off oil flows to Havana, including saying earlier this week that the Cuban regime is “very close to failing.”
Trump said Tuesday that Cuba “will be failing pretty soon,” arguing that the regime can no longer rely on Venezuelan oil, which has been captured after the U.S. capture and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Venezuela, once Cuba’s primary energy supplier, has sent no oil since early January.
By mid-2025, Venezuela was the island’s only supplier of fuel oil, which is critical for electricity generation.
However, the last such shipment arrived in November, according to Kpler.
The loss of Venezuelan oil has hit especially hard. Cuba’s struggling economy — already weakened by declining tourism, falling sugar production, and chronic shortages — depends heavily on subsidized energy.
Other experts agree this is a watershed moment for the communist nation.
Energy expert Jorge Pinon of the University of Texas warned that Cuba faces a “major crisis” if shipments do not resume soon.
Mexico, Cuba’s largest oil supplier last year, appears to have paused a planned shipment.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged reports of a delay, calling it a “sovereign decision,” while later insisting that exports had not fully stopped and could continue through state oil company Pemex or as humanitarian aid.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel remains defiant in the face of the major crisis, even posting on social media that outside threats would not break the island’s resolve.
“The harshness of these times and the brutality of the threats against Cuba will not hold us back,” he said in a post to X.
This is an ongoing story. Check back for further updates.