by Frank Holmes, reporter
If it seems like each time she speaks, Kamala Harris comes across as a little less confident and a lot more shell-shocked, you’re right—and there’s a reason for that.
Kamala isn’t the greatest policy wonk or thought leader, but she isn’t dumb—and she’s recognized a pattern that appears ready to doom her candidacy in five weeks.
It’s possible—just possible—that Kamala Harris believes her second presidential bid is doomed to go down in flames.
In her first bid for the highest office, Kamala Harris opened in a dominant position, with a huge war chest, strong popularity, and a growing place in the 2020 Democratic primary polls.
Then she started speaking—and her presidential prospects started dropping like a rock. She made such a terrible second impression that she dropped out of the race before the first votes were cast.
Kamala believes history may be repeating itself.
After Democrats shoved Joe Biden off the top of the ticket, they expressed their great “joy” with their new choice.
They based an entire campaign around vibes…including the fact that they had a DJ at the Democratic National Convention.
Then Kamala started speaking.
She flopped so badly at her debate with President Donald Trump that she demanded a rematch, hid herself from the media, and answered every question with stories about how she “grew up in a middle-class household.”
Now, just like in the 2020 primaries, her polls are starting to take on water.
Things are bad nationally, in swing states, and among specific Democrat-leaning groups.
Things are so bad that even CNN had to admit that she’s poised to have “the worst Democratic performance in a generation” among union households. She’s “10 points off the mark off Joe Biden, who of course won four years ago, who was sort of that union guy, ‘Union Joe,’ right? Won it by 19 points. She’s 10 points off his mark and the worst in a generation.”
Explain this:
Kamala Harris is on track for "the worst Democrat performance in a generation" with union voters.
How in the world does the mainstream media have her beating Trump?!? POLLS ARE BS!
pic.twitter.com/3Bonf0t2WO— Chad Prather (@WatchChad) September 30, 2024
The Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls shows the race tightening. While polls from late August or early September show Harris leading fairly consistently, polls over the last few weeks show Trump beginning to mount a thin but emerging lead everywhere, all at once.
One of the most important polls, the Gallup poll, shows Donald Trump doing something no Republican has done in more than 20 years: winning the popular vote.
The poll shows Republicans leading Democrats by a three-point margin: 48 percent to 45 percent.
The last Republican president who won with a popular vote majority was George H.W. Bush in 1992.
“The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose. Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage,” says Gallup.
If Trump wins the popular vote by 2.5 percent, that would give the Trump-Vance Republican ticket a landslide 312 electoral votes, compared to 199 for Kamala Harris and just 27 electoral votes in the tossup category. (The three states are Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire.)
“That’s an early F-ing election night,” said journalist Eric Daugherty. “Kamala’s problems would not be the battleground” states.
WOAH – Based on GALLUP's poll, Trump is on track to win the popular vote by 2.5 points.
1) That's an early F-ing election night.
2) Kamala's problems would not be the battlegrounds. Would look something like this. https://t.co/xUHPC0hVDe pic.twitter.com/h5tOPZnnVL— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 25, 2024
Even polls that don’t show Trump winning indicate Kamala might be losing.
A new AARP poll shows Harris leading by two points total, but that’s within the margin of error—and it actually highlights a few big weaknesses that has Democratic campaign officials panicking.
“Harris’ biggest weakness is older voters,” Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose Fabrizio Ward polling firm helped guide the AARP poll, told Politico. “It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind.”
But the Democrat who assisted Ward on the AARP poll, Jeffrey Liszt of Impact Research, admitted, “When you look back at the job that people think that he did, his job rating is better than hers. And again, that’s her core vulnerability.”
A majority, 52 percent of voters, disapprove of Kamala’s job on jobs and the economy. Polls show voters trust Trump on the biggest issues.
As a result, Trump is beating Harris in five of the seven battleground states, according to a new poll from AtlasIntel. Trump shows the strongest strength against Kamala Harris in Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1) , but also has a “narrow” lead in Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2).
The poll shows Trump trailing Kamala Harris in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).—although the poll was taken before the Biden-Harris administration’s lackluster response to Hurricane Helene, which devastated the western part of North Carolina. But even that outcome would give Trump 290 electoral votes—20 more than he needs to win.
But things are worse yet for Harris: She’s actually behind in Nevada, by one point, according to Rasmussen.
CNN’s Trump-hating anchor Jim Acosta had to admit this week, “If you believe this New York Times poll, her lead has shrunk by 11 points” in the battleground state of Arizona.
Part of the reason to believe Trump is winning is that, if he had such a strong popular vote lead, he would be trending upward in Democratic states…and he is.
Take the second-largest reliably Democratic state in the nation: his home state of New York. Rasmussen poll shows Trump gaining an incredible 40 percent of black voters’ support and winning independent voters outright, 52 percent to 43 percent.
Rasmussen just dropped a poll revealing Trump gaining MASSIVELY on Kamala Harris in New York. It shows him winning 40% of the black vote and outright winning independent voters
No wonder Democrats keep importing illegals into New York City. They need replacement votes.
"So… pic.twitter.com/dLMO5Gov9P
— George (@BehizyTweets) September 30, 2024
Harris may be winning by 12 to 14 points, but in 2020, Joe Biden won New York by 23 percentage points.
The handwriting is on the wall.
Deep down experience has taught Kamala Harris that the more voters get to know her, even in Democratic states, the less they want to put her in charges of anything.
History is repeating itself. And Kamala’s cackling can’t cover up the fear in her eyes.