Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces growing pressure to resign from his own Liberal Party after his top minister abruptly quit and criticized his handling of the budget. Trudeau has led the country for nearly a decade, but has become widely unpopular in recent years over a wide range of issues, including the high cost of living and rising inflation.
There is no mechanism for Trudeau’s party to force him out in the short-term. He could resign, or his party could be forced from power by a “no confidence” vote in Parliament that would trigger an election that would very likely favor the opposing Conservative Party.
If his party were to survive a vote in Parliament — which seems increasingly unlikely — Trudeau could choose to stay on as prime minister until there is an election.
As rising numbers of Liberal lawmakers called Tuesday for Trudeau to resign, the country’s minister of natural resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, said “we all need to give him a little time to reflect.”
Here’s a deeper look at the possible paths for Trudeau and Canada.
If Trudeau resigns, which political analysts consider a likely scenario, the Liberals would need to choose an interim prime minister to lead the country at least until elections are held.
It isn’t clear yet who the most likely candidate would be for any interim role.
Longer term, a person likely to seek power in the Liberal Party post-Trudeau is Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada, and later the Bank of England. Carney has long been interested in entering politics and becoming prime minister.
Another possible candidate is Trudeau’s new finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc. The former public safety minister, and a close friend of Trudeau, LeBlanc recently joined the prime minister at a dinner with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Concerns about Trudeau’s leadership were exacerbated Monday when Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister, quit his Cabinet. Freeland was highly critical of Trudeau’s handling of the economy in the face of steep tariffs threatened by Trump. Shortly before Freeland announced her decision, the country’s housing minister also quit.
“My guess is that if another minister or two goes, he’s toast, he will be forced to resign,” said Canadian historian Robert Bothwell.
With voters deeply unhappy, Parliament has the authority to try to knock Trudeau’s Liberal party from power by holding a “no confidence” vote that would trigger an early election. And if a majority of Parliament votes against his government, Trudeau would then be “erased in the election,” Bothwell said.
The walls are rapidly closing in on Trudeau.
Because Liberals don’t hold an outright majority in the Parliament, they have for years depended on the support of the leftist New Democratic Party to pass legislation and stay in power. But that support has all but vanished — the NDP’s leader has called on Trudeau to resign — and that clears the way for Parliament to vote “no confidence.”
After Tuesday, Parliament will be shut for the holidays until late next month, and a “no confidence” vote could be scheduled sometime thereafter.
The Conservative Party, which has a commanding lead in the polls over the Liberals, has not publicly called for Trudeau’s resignation. And because of tactics the Liberal Party can deploy to delay a “no confidence” vote, Conservatives might not be able to force one for a couple of months, said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto.
A vote of no confidence would trigger an immediate election.
The political winds are blowing heavily against Trudeau, but he could theoretically cling to power a while longer.
While a growing number want him to resign, one longtime supporter, Liberal lawmaker James Maloney, said Trudeau has the support of his base in Parliament.
“Like most families, sometimes we have fights around the holidays. But of course, like most families, we find our way through it,” Trudeau said. “I love this country. I deeply love this party. I love you guys.”
If Trudeau’s Liberal party survives no confidence votes in the coming months — an unlikely scenario — the latest the next federal election could be held is October 20.
The odds of an election much sooner than that have gone up.
“I expect an election in late spring, unless Trudeau decides to dissolves Parliament and dives into an election before then,” said Wiseman.
With Liberals’ grip on power fading, experts say the best they can hope for in the next election is to hold the Conservatives to a minority government that will be reliant on other parties to pass legislation. The latest polling from Nanos has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 43% to 23%, suggesting Conservatives could win a majority of the seats.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.