Democratic Party dysfunction and infighting could lead to a surprising flip for Republicans.
California is on the verge of turning red and electing a Republican candidate for governor, polls show.
Two Republican candidates are polling at the top of California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, raising the alarming prospect for Democrats that they could be shut out of the November election entirely — leaving the nation’s most populous state deep blue state with a GOP governor for the first time in 15 years.
A February Emerson College Polling survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted just two weeks ago, found former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading the crowded field at 17 percent. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also a Republican, came in at 14 percent —tied with Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, who also polled at 14 percent.
Former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer trailed at 10 and 9 percent, respectively. Twenty-one percent of likely voters said they remain undecided.
Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes on June 2 — regardless of party — advance to the November general election. If Hilton and Bianco finish in the top two, Democrats would have no candidate on the November ballot, and California would be guaranteed to elect a Republican governor.
“It is mathematically possible that you could have two Republicans finishing one-two in the primary,” political analyst Matt Klink said. “That said, I believe the political brains in the Democratic Party will get involved and say we need to make sure we get one of our candidates into the runoff because he or she will likely win the general election.”
The Emerson poll shows the Republican vote is consolidating while Democrats remain fractured.
“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton at 38 percent and Chad Bianco at 37 percent, while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22 percent,” said Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate.”
A separate survey by the Public Policy Institute of California released this month reached a similar conclusion. They found five candidates in a virtual tie heading into the June primary — with both Republican candidates among them.
Republicans have not won a statewide race in California since 2006 and have not held statewide office since 2011. The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992.
Hilton, who took in roughly $4.1 million in donations in the second half of 2025, has been a rising force in the race since the field’s first major televised debate in early February.
Bianco, a popular law enforcement figure with a populist profile, has drawn support among voters angry at the state’s failed socialist leadership.
The primary is set for June 2.