In the last decade, pollsters have frequently missed the mark — and President Joe Biden better hope this new poll is dead wrong.
Ahead of the surprising stalemate in last year’s midterm elections, an AP-NORC poll perceived an increase in support for some of the Democrat’s core issues, and another AP-NORC poll described liberal voters as very motivated.
But these pollsters have bad news for President Joe Biden and his re-election chances in 2024.
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Earlier this year, Biden started hovering above 40% approval, with 45% expressing approval in February and 41% in January.
But the president just notched an approval rating of 38% in the new poll, back near his all-time low.
Biden hit an all-time low of 36% in July. At the time, he was presiding over an inflation rate at a 40-year high, with particularly high prices for necessities like energy and prices.
In other words, Biden just saw his approval rating dip by 7 points in one month, and he’s sitting just two points above his historic low right as the 2024 election is ramping up.
According to the poll, he remains hampered by his performance on economic issues… and his lack of popularity among his liberal base.
After all, he just presided over a pair of bank failures, even as inflation is grabbing fewer headlines.
Just 31% approve of Biden’s stewardship of the national economy, about where it’s been over the course of the last year. His handling of the nation’s economic fortunes has been a weak point at least since late 2021, when the inflation that the administration had suggested was transitory became a bigger pain point for businesses and families.
Only about a quarter of Americans say the national economy is good or that the country is headed in the right direction, the poll shows. Those numbers have also fluctuated only slightly over the last few months.
To many, the economy feels as though it could be on a knife’s edge after the recent bank failures, as well as the debt limit showdown with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., that could put the U.S. government at risk of defaulting.
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The difference between Biden’s approval overall and his approval on the economy is driven largely by Democrats, 76% of whom say they approve of how he’s handling his job as president while just 63% approve of his handling of the economy. Few Republicans approve of Biden on either count.
Biden also remains unpopular with young people, especially for a Democrat.
Democrats under the age of 45 feel less positive about Biden, causing a drag on his approval ratings. Just 54% approve of the president’s economic leadership, compared to 72% of Democrats older than 45. Similarly, just 66% of Democrats under 45 approve of Biden overall, compared to 85% of older Democrats.
The Horn editorial team and the Associated Press contributed to this article.