Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-V.T., is flying high after winning the New Hampshire primary last week.
His supporters are energized and he’s the Democratic frontrunner in the polls.
But this week could tell another story altogether – and it’s one that has the potential to spell the beginning of the end for his 2020 presidential hopes as a core group of Democratic voters could be turning on him in a big way.
This demographic is so key that no Democrat has a chance of winning the nomination without them: Unions.
In Nevada, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 22, the powerful Culinary Workers Union refused to back any candidate.
But they also made a point to criticize both Sanders and his supporters.
Heading towards the all-important Super Tuesday primaries, it’s clear that Bernie Sanders has a union problem.
The Culinary Union created flyers showing where the candidates stand on healthcare and warned that Sanders’s “Medicare for All” plan would replace the union’s own plan, which is much loved by its members.
Nevada, get ready to Early Vote! February 15th – 18th
🗳We vote. We win. For our families! #FirstInTheWest #NVCaucus #NVEarlyVote pic.twitter.com/6kKf1weZt4— Culinary Union (@Culinary226) February 12, 2020
Since then, the organization has come under attack by Sanders’ notoriously toxic supporters.
Geoconda Argüello-Kline, the union’s secretary treasurer, released a statement saying they were being “viciously attacked” for simply pointing to the reality that the Sanders proposal would “take away the system of care we have built over 8 decades.”
But they’re not backing down.
That type of opposition to “Medicare for All” – especially from some key unions – is why so many other candidates quickly distanced themselves from the plan, with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg putting this spin on it instead:
There are 14 million union workers in America who have fought hard for strong, employer-provided health benefits. Medicare for All Who Want It protects their plans and union members' freedom to choose the coverage that's best for them.
— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) February 12, 2020
That’s more in line with what many unions would accept – and the candidates are fighting tooth and nail for those endorsements. They’re so key to a candidate’s chances that a single endorsement could make or break a campaign in a key state.
Sanders, for example, won the endorsement in December of the State Employees’ Association of New Hampshire/SEIU Local 1984, which has 10,000 members.
Given that he beat Buttigieg there by just 3,867 votes, it’s not unthinkable that the endorsement was literally the key to his victory.
If 10,000 members could swing New Hampshire, imagine what the 60,000 members of the Culinary Workers Union could do in Nevada, which has a larger population but much less participation given that it’s a caucus rather than a primary.
And while the union has declined to endorse any candidate, having its members actively working against one could be just as damaging.
That’s why Sanders quickly went into damage control mode, firing off a tweet supporting the union in its ongoing contract negotiations:
I stand with @Culinary226 fighting for health care, a pension and fair wages. Making $780 million in profit, @UHS_Inc is one of the largest, most profitable hospital corporations in the country. They must put aside their greed, come to the table and negotiate a fair contract. https://t.co/4i16nbpcJJ
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) February 13, 2020
He also took the rare step of rebuking his notoriously loud supporters, who are often accusing of bullying tactics online.
Sanders has been reluctant to distance himself from what critics have called “trolls” and a “toxic” online culture, no doubt because these are also his strongest and most dedicated supporters.
But he stepped in to help smooth things over with the union.
“Harassment of all forms is unacceptable to me, and we urge supporters of all campaigns not to engage in bullying or ugly personal attacks,” he said in a statement released by his campaign. “We can certainly disagree on issues, but we must do it in a respectful manner.”
Will it be enough?
Unless he abandons “Medicare for All” or significantly alters his plan to allow private insurance for many and a public option for the rest, there’s a good chance his public show of support isn’t going to buy him any good will with several key unions, including the Culinary Workers.
And if he ends up losing in Nevada, all that talk of his momentum from New Hampshire will quickly fade from the headlines… especially given that the next contest on the calendar is South Carolina, where he is not expected to do well.
One recent poll had him in third place, 23 points behind former Vice President Joe Biden.
And two big losses in a row for Sanders could spell doom heading into the March 3 Super Tuesday vote.
FURTHER READING: Bernie Sanders also has a Vietnam problem
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a longtime journalist for The Horn News.