by Frank Holmes, reporter
After all the Democrats on the debate platform exit stage left, Donald Trump’s reelection as president is going to depend on one thing… and one place.
Experts say they’ve found the one factor to watch, which accurately predicts the outcome of every election going back a generation.
If this one issue holds up, Trump will be reelected, no matter who the Democrats nominate or how well that person campaigns… and it won’t even be close.
It’s the economy, stupid.
Moody Analytics has measured how the American people feel about their personal well-being… and it could mean that Trump wins in 2020, and wins big.
A landslide could be coming next November, according to Moody, which ran the numbers again for 2020.
“If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the financial analysts say.
If Americans vote based on how well they’re doing economically, Trump will win 351 votes in the Electoral College, to the Democrats’ 187.
That’s 47 votes more than Trump won when he shocked the political world in 2016.
Record high employment for blacks and Hispanics — key Democrat voting groups — and rising wages mean the Democrats might just need a miracle next year.
“Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” said the report that was written by Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, together with Dan White and Bernard Yaro.
In fact, Zandi and his partners ran three models, and all of them show Trump with a lopsided win.
Their worst-case scenario for the president has Trump piling up 289 electoral votes — well past the 270 he needs to spend four more years in the Oval Office.
And they’re not just blowing smoke. They have the goods to back up their talk.
Their model has accurately predicted every election since 1980—except 2016, which they thought Hillary would win.
That’s bad news for Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, or anyone else who has to run against him.
This isn’t news—Moody’s been predicting a Trump win since at least March—and they’re not alone.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said the chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, one of the few places that got the 2016 election right.
In fact, Zandi is so confident of victory that he said he can pinpoint the one part of the country that will decide the election.
It’s not just one state…it’s actually one county, in Pennsylvania.
Luzerne County “is the single-most important county, no kidding, in the entire election,” Zandi said.
Luzerne includes Wilkes-Barre in the northeastern part of the state…and it’s been under the Democrats’ control for decades.
But Trump won the county 58 percent to Hillary’s 38 percent in 2016, according to “Politico.”
Newsweek pinpointed the poverty-stricken county in the Pocono Mountains just after the 2016 election. They said the Democrats had turned up their noses at regular Americans to court the Wall Street/D.C./Hollywood elites.
“Anna from Nanticoke doesn’t want transgender people in her bathroom,” the magazine reported. “And the owner of an ink factory in Pittston hopes Trump will fix the Asian trade agreements that have crippled his business.”
Illegal immigrants in the county jail cost the cash-poor county $1.8 million in one year, from July 2015 and June 2016, the “Citizen’s Voice” newspaper reported.
Meanwhile, Hillary promised to close coal factories. The 2020 crop of Democratic candidates promise more of the same.
They are starting to have some relief under Donald Trump’s presidency.
And if they vote based on how much better Trump has made their lives, Trump will win 2020 in a landslide that sweeps down from the Poconos in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania.
Frank Holmes is a veteran journalist and an outspoken conservative that talks about the news that was in his weekly article, “On The Holmes Front.”