It’s starting to look like the so-called “blue wave” that’s supposed to sweep Democrats into power is turning into salty blue tears — and that’s very bad news for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who has staked her political future on winning the 2018 midterm elections.
The party, just months ago leading in major polls and plotting to take over BOTH houses of Congress, now stands on the brink of another humiliating defeat as Republican candidates take a lead in several key races.
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Right now, the GOP holds a slim 51-47 lead in the Senate. Two independents who caucus with Democrats essentially turn it into a slim 51-49 split. With Sen. John McCain at home as he battles cancer, that makes it a razor-thin 50-49.
Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have both been fantasizing about picking up two seats – just two – to allow them to become majority leaders and drive the left’s agenda in opposition to everything President Donald Trump says or does.
Now, it looks like that’s all it is: a fantasy.
With Democrats defending more seats than Republicans and in states that voted for Trump, they can’t afford to lose a single seat.
But right now, they’re on pace to lose at least THREE!
- Florida: Rick Scott, a Republican, is looking to unseat Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), and if the latest polls are any indication the Sunshine State is going to have a new senator next year. Scott is leading a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll by 3 points, 49-46.The 75-year-old Nelson was leading in most polls until spring. Then, he hit a wall. Real Clear Politics has Scott leading in three of the last four polls, running ahead of Nelson by an average of 2 points.
- North Dakota: It looks like Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) is in a whole lot of trouble in this deep red state, where Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) is ahead by 5 points, 42-47, in the Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.There has been little polling of this race, but North Dakota is part of the core of Trump’s support. He won the state 63-27 over Hillary Clinton in 2016, making it an uphill battle for Heitkamp.
- Indiana: Looks like the home state of Vice President Mike Pence is coming home for Republicans. Former Rep. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) is leading Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) by two points, 49-47, in the Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.
That’s a close race, to be sure, but Indiana is another deep red state. Not only did Trump win handily, 57-38, in 2016, but he took seven of the state’s nine congressional districts. Donnelly has his work cut out for him.
Democrats are leading in races for two GOP-controlled seats, in Nevada and Arizona, although there is still plenty of time for Republicans to turn those races around.
However, even if they won those, the current polls show them losing the other three and barely holding in Missouri, where Sen. Claire McCaskill clings to 2-point lead over her Republican challenger, state Attorney General Josh Hawley.
That means instead of a 51-49 Senate, it would actually turn into 52-48 GOP majority… still not enough to overcome all forms of Democratic stonewalling, but more than enough to protect the conservative agenda.
In the House, it still seems likely that the Republicans will lose seats – but it’s looking less likely that it’ll change hands.
Just months ago, the TV talking heads were predicting a Democratic blowout would give them control over the chamber.
Now, a CBS News/YouGov tracking poll puts the odds at just 50/50.
— The Horn editorial team