Republicans should be winning in deep red Ohio without breaking a sweat.
They’re not.
Two stunning new polls show Democrats leading in both of the Buckeye State’s biggest November races: the Senate contest and the governor’s race. President Donald Trump won in Ohio by 11 points just two years ago.
The most recent survey, an AARP poll conducted June 14-16 by the bipartisan Fabrizio/Impact polling team, found Democrat Amy Acton edging Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 47% to 44% in the governor’s race. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted 48% to 45% in the Senate contest. Both races are within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.
The AARP numbers follow a Fox News poll from early June that showed Brown leading Husted by 8 points, 53% to 45%, an almost unbelievably large margin.
The numbers carry a specific warning for Ramaswamy. In the AARP survey, he posts a 36% favorable rating with a 40% unfavorable. Sixteen percent of Republican respondents view him unfavorably. Acton, by contrast, has only 5% of Democrats viewing her negatively and holds a 9-point lead among independents. In other words, Ramaswamy is underwater with the voters he needs to win.
Husted, who was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, carries a 41% favorable rating against a 50% unfavorable in the Fox poll. Brown, who held an Ohio Senate seat for nearly two decades before losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, posts a 53% favorable to 44% unfavorable. Brown pulls 31% support from non-MAGA Republicans.
“There’s good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio,” Fox News Republican pollster Daron Shaw said of the poll. “The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown.”
Ohio hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006. And Ramaswamy has the money to fight back. He loaned his own campaign $25 million, and has been running ads continuously since March. His pro-Ramaswamy super PAC, V-PAC, launched an additional $25 million statewide advertising blitz this month targeting Acton.
“We are going up and we aren’t coming down until November,” Campaign manager Jonathan Ewing told Breitbart News.
Ramaswamy is campaigning on tax cuts, regulatory rollback, and school choice. He’s also gone after Acton’s record directly.
“Ohio families have seen the disastrous results of Amy Acton’s progressive leadership,” his campaign said. “Acton will treat taxpayers like an open checkbook, implementing the same failed tax-and-spend policies that led to crushing inflation and smaller paychecks.”
There’s plenty of time for the Republicans. Both races remain competitive, and November is still four months away.
But in a state Trump carried easily, the polls are a warning the GOP can’t ignore.