As the United States and Iran remain locked in a bloody war, strategists and national security experts are increasingly focused on a small island that could hold the key to President Donald Trump’s endgame — Kharg Island.
Located about 16 miles off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf, Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Its remote position makes it both economically vital to the radical Islamic regime, but difficult for Tehran to defend.
It is estimated the island has a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day, and seizing it “would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline,” Petras Katinas, an expert on energy and defense, told CNBC.
Operation Epic Fury has already sent shockwaves through global energy markets. The war, which included the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that has effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — disrupting a huge amount of the world’s daily oil supply.
Iran has started laying boat mines in the strait, and while the mining is not yet extensive, Iran still retains a large amount of their small boats and minelayers, meaning the Islamic regime could still deploy hundreds of mines throughout the waterway.
In response, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that at Trump’s direction, U.S. Central Command had been “eliminating inactive mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — wiping them out with ruthless precision,” and Central Command has confirmed the destruction of 16 Iranian minelayers.
With the strait paralyzed, attention has turned to whether Trump might move to neutralize Kharg Island directly – or even take it over. Former administration official John Ullyot, who served on the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, called a potential U.S. raid to capture the island “high-risk, high-reward. He said taking such a high percentage of Iranian oil supply off the table would cripple the regime and give the U.S. significant leverage over where Iran’s oil goes — similar to the leverage Washington has exercised over Venezuela.
Analyst Ahmed Soliman put it in even starker terms.
“Losing Kharg for even a few weeks will create a security and societal crisis in Iran at the same time. Tehran doesn’t get to choose which one to deal with first. The revenue shortfall would run into the billions monthly,” he said. “You’d see the currency collapse further, inflation spike, subsidies buckle.”
Trump has projected confidence that the United States military would soon achieve all their goals in the conflict. He told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade that ships near the passageway need to “show some guts” and push through, and said, “There’s nothing to be afraid of, they have no Navy, we sunk all their ships.”
Could the all-important Kharg Island be the next domino to fall?