There could be big changes to Social Security coming as soon as next year — and all eyes are on President-elect Donald Trump’s next move.
Will Trump give it the “thumbs up” or rally Republicans to kill the bill?
A bill set for a Senate vote this week faces strong resistance from conservative Republicans concerned about its $190 billion price tag, even as Democratic leadership pushes for swift passage before Congress changes hands.
However, some Republican senators have expressed a willingness to join Democrats — and many observers are now waiting to see if Trump, who will be inaugurated in just over a month, will put his thumb on the scale one way or another.
The Social Security Fairness Act, which passed the House with a 327-75 vote, would repeal two provisions affecting public sector workers: the Windfall Elimination Provision from 1983 and the Government Pension Offset from 1977.
These rules currently reduce Social Security benefits for workers who receive government pensions and their spouses — but would speed bankruptcy of the benefits program, warn critics.
“I got all my Democrats lined up to support it. I want you to work. We need 15 Republicans. Let’s get them. We’re going to have the vote,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at a recent rally.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-K.Y., leads the opposition and has demanded that Social Security reforms be included to help offset the cost.
“It speeds the bankruptcy of Social Security. Social Security is due to go bankrupt in 2034. This will speed it up by a year or so. It’s $200 billion added to a program that is already short of money,” Paul warned in a recent interview with The Hill.
Paul plans to propose an amendment gradually raising the Social Security retirement age to 70 over the next 12 years.
“If you’re going to add to its mandate by expanding it, you should pay for it. One of the proposals that’s been out there for a long time is to gradually raise the age of eligibility,” Paul said.
Sen. Mike Lee, R-U.T., has expressed serious concerns about the bill’s impact on the longtime health of the Social Security program.
“It’s got to be offset one way or another. We have never in history, to my knowledge, unleashed such a massive bomb that would blow such a massive hole in the Social Security trust fund — $200 billion,” Lee said.
The legislation, sponsored by Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-L.A., and Susan Collins, R-M.E., has secured 14 Republican co-sponsors. However, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-W.I., has recently joined the opposition.
“It’s way too broad. It provides benefits to people who aren’t harmed by the fix from the 1970s… I would view it as grotesquely irresponsible,” Johnson told The Hill.
The vote timing creates additional pressure as Congress faces a December 20 deadline to prevent a government shutdown, with Democrats recently passing a 1,500+ page spending bill through the House.
Paul could potentially delay consideration of the necessary stopgap funding bill in the U.S. Senate if he doesn’t receive a vote on his amendment.
Senate Republican Whip John Thune described the GOP debate at Tuesday’s Republican policy lunch as a “fulsome conversation” but indicated Senate leadership would not take sides.
“I think in the end, it’s going to come down to individual members are going to make their own decisions,” Thune said.
Now, all eyes shift to Trump.