The recent French legislative elections have signaled a potential shift in the political landscape, with the conservative National Rally and its allies securing approximately one-third of the votes in the first round.
This outcome positions them ahead of both the New Popular Front coalition, which includes center-left, green, and hard-left parties, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.
The French electoral system, based on district representation rather than proportional representation, may lead to the National Rally gaining the most seats in the National Assembly. However, it remains uncertain whether they will achieve an absolute majority of 289 out of 577 seats.
In response to the NR’s potential dominance, rival parties are employing political maneuvers. The left-wing coalition and Macron’s centrist alliance are withdrawing candidates in certain districts to consolidate support against the National Rally. This tactic, previously effective when the NR was considered politically marginal, may face challenges given the party’s now widespread support.
If the National Rally or any non-centrist force secures a majority, France could enter a period of “cohabitation,” where Macron would be compelled to appoint a prime minister from the majority party. This scenario would significantly alter the power dynamics in French politics, potentially leading to key policy changes between the president and the government.
While the president retains certain powers in foreign policy, European affairs, and defense during cohabitation, a weakened domestic position could complicate France’s stance on international issues.
The stark ideological differences between Macron and potential far-right or leftist majorities in areas like defense and foreign policy could create tensions in France’s global engagements.
This political reconfiguration poses challenges to Macron’s governance for the remainder of his term until 2027, potentially reshaping the international policy landscape.