The Senate Democrats are staring at a tilted map this year. They’re defending incumbents in red states like Ohio and Montana. Plus, with Joe Manchin’s retirement, the Democrats have already said goodbye to their chance to hold West Virginia.
Now, the Senate Democrats are trending down in Nevada, a crucial swing state… and they’re panicking.
First-term Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., just saw her race categorized from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” not even “tilt Democrat.” Now, Rosen has bought $14 million on an ad blitz, and her campaign reportedly described the ad buy as the most expensive in Nevada’s entire political history.
Rosen plans to spend $1 million on ads per week after mid-July, Politico reported.
“She’s going to need it,” Mike Berg, a spokesperson for the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, told The Washington Times. “The Nevada Senate race was moved to toss-up by the Cook Political Report yesterday because polls have consistently shown that, despite her incumbency advantage, Jacky Rosen is polling in the high thirties and low forties. That’s a dangerous spot.”
Nevada has seen close elections for the last several cycles. Even the late Harry Reid had close races during his tenure as Senate Majority Leader.
In 2022, Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won the Senate’s closest race of that year. It came down to 10,000 votes in Reno.
Like Rosen, Cortez Masto was a first-term Democrat. When senators lose re-election, they tend to lose it after their first term. Once they win re-election once, they tend to linger in Congress for several more terms.
Compared to Rosen, Cortez Masto was facing a weaker challenger. She ran against Attorney General Adam Laxalt, a political scion hampered by involvement in unsuccessful lawsuits to contest the 2020 election.
Rosen disputes this characterization.
“While her extreme Republican opponents are busy trying to out-MAGA each other, Jacky Rosen is reaching Nevada voters for the general election,” Rosen Campaign Manager Stewart Boss said in a statement to CBS News.
Rosen’s campaign is not only spending its own money. It’s also receiving a $36 million boost from the Senate Majority PAC, an organization associated with Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.
She’s betting big… and she might lose big.
What’s more, Rosen knows that she’s in trouble.
Take a look at this panic —
🚨 The Cook Political Report just downgraded my race to a 'Toss Up' 🚨
Experts predict that Nevada could once again decide Senate control and my race is now caught in a statistical dead heat. pic.twitter.com/vQYopyNH10
— Jacky Rosen (@RosenforNevada) April 3, 2024
The Associated Press contributed