Longtime political insiders say it’s no longer a question of if the Republicans retake control over the House of Representatives after this autumn’s midterm elections.
Only by how much.
And so far, the smart money says it’ll be by a lot.
Kristin Davison, a Republican strategist with Axiom Strategies, told Politico she expected the GOP to gain between 30 and 40 seats in the House.
Ken Spain, a GOP consultant with Narrative Strategies, predicted upward of 30 in the same segment – and added that he expects Republicans to take control over the Senate, too.
“I really think 2022 is going to be the election of the angry suburban mom,” he predicted, saying they are especially angry over – and motivated by – issues related to education, immigration, and crime.
Former Rep. Will Hurd, R-Tex., made a similar prediction on CNN, saying there would be a “red wave” and that the surge would be driven in part by record turnout among Latinos voting Republican – with many motivated by crime and border security.
A GOP pickup of 30-40 seats would give them between 240 and 250 seats in total.
That would be more than enough to take control over the chamber, where the GOP needs to flip just three or four seats, depending on the outcome of currently vacant districts.
Any extra padding on top of that would give House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., more wiggle room in dealing with the handful of lawmakers within his own conference who have publicly come out against him… and that, in turn, could ensure him a smooth path to the speaker’s gavel.
While many of the newest predictions come from partisan sources, most independent observers also agree.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report hasn’t released its full projections yet, but already has Republicans with 197 seats that are either solid, likely, or leaning toward them… versus just 172 for the Democrats.
They also have 18 current Democratic seats rated as “tossups,” compared to only eight for GOP-held seats, although those numbers will change as the redistricting process unfolds.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also sees a GOP win, albeit by a more modest margin. The website notes that Democrats already lost a bunch of seats in 2020, which could reduce the carnage this year.
They’re projecting a Republican gain of 19 seats – still more than enough to take control.
There are four key reasons that nearly every projection has the Republicans easily taking control.
First, there’s the fact that the party of a new president has lost an average of 29 House seats in every midterm election.
Second, Americans are livid over historic inflation and early warning signs of a looming recession – and Davison told Politico that GOP candidates have been doing well this cycle so far by focusing on those types of “kitchen table” issues.
“What people remember, what voters remember to keep it simple, is that gas was lower when Trump was president and it’s higher now,” she said.
Third, Joe Biden remains a deeply unpopular president, with an approval rating barely above 40 percent. He’s so disliked that some Democrats are quietly telling the White House they don’t want Biden stumping for them on the campaign trail.
And fourth, not only is Congress itself is deeply unpopular, but most Americans believe the country is on the wrong track… circumstances where the public sentiment is usually bad news for incumbents.
Spain warned Republicans just one thing could undermine them – and that’s going off message.
“[If] you’re re-litigating the 2020 election, and whether or not there was a legitimate outcome to it, then you are not on message,” he said. “And you’re frankly putting your candidacy at risk.”
In other words, stick to the kitchen table.
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert.